The three-way factor that makes France's election results so unusual

The second round of French parliamentary elections are typically a two-horse race, but unusual circumstances mean that a record number of candidates are still in the running after Sunday's first-round vote. With the far right in the lead, whether or not third-place candidates choose to drop out will be a deciding factor when France votes again this weekend.

It's normally straightforward: multiple candidates stand in the first round of French legislative elections, then the top two go through to a deciding round the week after.

But little about these elections is normal.

They are taking place three years ahead of schedule and were organised in less than three weeks, after President Emmanuel Macron took the shock decision to dissolve parliament when his party took a drubbing in EU elections last month.

The lightning lead-up, shifting political alliances and high turnout have all combined to shake up the usual patterns. 

After Sunday's first round of voting, as many as 306 of the 577 seats in France's National Assembly could be decided in three-way races.

In the last parliamentary elections two years ago, it was just eight.

Turnout crucial

While it's always been possible for more than two candidates to qualify for the second round, falling voter turnout has made that outcome less and less likely.

Under France's election rules, unless one candidate wins the first round by a landslide – by getting more than 50 percent of ballots cast, which have to add up to at least 25 percent of the total number of voters – the two highest-placing candidates go through to a runoff.

But candidates who come third or lower also qualify if they win the votes of at least 12.5 percent of the electorate. 

That's hard to do if not many voters take part. The last three parliamentary elections have seen turnout of roughly 48 percent (2022), 49 percent (2017) and 57 percent (2012) in the first round, which effectively meant parties had to win a higher share of ballots cast to get across the threshold.

On Sunday, turnout reached almost 67 percent – its highest since 1997.

That year's elections were also called early, and likewise resulted in an unusually high number of three-way races in the second round: 79. 

Conglomeration effect

Snap elections also mean a last-minute dash to field candidates, which in many cases leaves voters with fewer choices.

A total of 4,010 candidates stood in Sunday's first round, compared to 6,290 in 2022 and 7,877 in 2017.

With smaller parties less likely to have found strong contestants in time, votes ended up concentrated in France's biggest political blocs.

There are three: the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies, Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance, and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) – a broad coalition freshly  formed to take on the far right.

By sweeping several parties into the same tent, its emergence further reduced the number of candidates competing.

All that narrowed the field from the first round and made it more likely three frontrunners would each take a larger share of the vote.

To run or not to run

That's what happened in 306 of the 501 constituencies now going into a second round, Ipsos pollsters calculate based on official results. 

A further five constituencies are headed for four-way races, something virtually unheard of in recent elections.

With the RN qualifying for almost every runoff, the question now is whether third- or fourth-place candidates will step down. 

The NFP, which features in at least 272 of the three-way contests and all of the four-ways, has already promised to withdraw from races where another bloc stands a better chance of beating the RN. 

Macron has indicated his centrists will do likewise, though with the caveat that they'll only give way to parties that share the "values of the Republic". Candidates from his alliance qualified for at least 239 three-way runoffs and five four-ways.

Meanwhile the smaller right-wing Republicans, eligible for two four-way contests and 33 three-ways, have signalled they plan to stay in every race.

Tactical votes

Those decisions have to be made by Tuesday evening, the deadline for candidates to confirm whether or not their name will be on the ballot for the second round.

They could prove crucial when France votes again on Sunday. 

So-called "triangular" runoffs typically result in a win for whichever party came top in the first round, since the opposition is split. But two-way contests are more closely fought, especially when voters are galvanised. 

Polling conducted before the first-round vote suggests that a large majority of left-wing voters would be willing to back another bloc to keep the RN out of government, as would a smaller majority of centrists.

But after a polarising election campaign, there's no guarantee French voters are prepared to cross party lines.